West Ham hoping for South Coast nerves as promotion hangs in the balance

The Championship reaches crescendo tomorrow, and two games will decide whether West Ham or Southampton reach the Premiership.

While victory is in the Saints hands, a glance at the form guide implies that the Hammers are in with a shout. Over the past five games, they’re 3rd relative to Southampton’s 11th.

But carve that into home and away, and a different picture emerges. At Upton Park, where West Ham play Hull, they’re 11th, while at St Mary’s, where Southampton host Coventry, they’re 6th.

Such disparity exemplifies the season. Sam Allardyce has been incapable of building momentum in East London – winning the same number of home games as 22nd placed Portsmouth – while Nigel Adkins has won more matches on the South Coast than any other team in the Championship.

It’s thus a fitting finish to the season. But whoever comes 3rd will feel mighty hard done by as 85 points would have got them promoted in four of the past five years.

Come 12.30pm, West Ham need a miracle. They have a near fully-fit squad, yet they still know that their fate will be decided by the already-relegated Coventry.

Quite frankly, they’ll be praying that Southampton choke. And the BBC cameras will help – the Seasiders have won just 20% of their televised games this season.

That said, Southampton deserve to triumph. By jumping two divisions in two seasons, they’d personify mind over matter, attitude over ability.

Moreover, they play fluid football – the kind that West Ham used to – and combined with the consistency that has seen them in the top two all season, they deserve to be back in the Premiership for the first time in seven years.

Even if they don’t make it, there’s still plenty to be positive about, so long as Rickie Lambert doesn’t leave.

The same can’t be said, however, for West Ham. Just as the Saints stand to win everything, so too the Hammers stand to lose everything.

Sullivan and Gold have funded Premiership footballers all season, and thus if the Hammers were to come 3rd they would finally feel the full hit of last year’s relegation.

Big name mercenaries would leave – in part, that’s no bad thing as Carew and Faubert are rumoured to be on 36k and 42k a week respectively – but so too would the promising youth – Tomkins and Noble – and the experience – Green and Faye – needed to endure the back breaking 46 game Championship seasons.

In the same way that Big Sam oversaw a complete overhaul of his squad last summer, he would this year too – and it would be considerably less glamorous.

In the circumstances, the Hammers boss can only hope that fear will prove as much of a motivator to his players tomorrow, as greed does to Southampton’s.

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