For & Against

Reasons for and against…Chelsea challenging for the title – August 2nd 2012

For anybody who thought that winning the Champions League would satiate Roman Abramovich’s ambition, this Summer has been a real slap in the face – lots of money spent, and by all accounts Chelsea are not quite done in the transfer market. But are the new additions enough to lift them back into genuine contention?

Yes

– Of all the players who have arrived in the Premier League, Eden Hazard is the biggest difference-maker and the one we should all be most excited about watching. Last season, Chelsea were robotic, and at times grindingly predictable – no side with Hazard in it is ever going to described in such terms. Does the Belgian have a huge ego? Sure, but it’s proportionate to his talent.

– The purchase of Hazard has overshadowed a transfer that was completed before the end of last season – the acquisition of Marko Marin. The 23 year-old German was weighed down by expectations in his homeland, but a fresh start away from the hopes of a nation could be reinvigorating and see him climb to levels he was once projected to reach. This is a very, very crafty player, with a lovely weight of pass and an abundance of technique. Combine him with Hazard, Oscar, and of course Juan Mata, and Chelsea have as much creativity as any side in the league.

– There are some obvious negatives derived from the departure of Didier Drogba, but a positive could be the emergence of Fernando Torres in his place. There were signs during Euro 2012 that the Spaniard had started to recover some of his self-belief in-front of goal, and maybe his great malaise is ready to lift. With Drogba gone, Torres now has some much needed assurance over his starting position, and he’s the kind of the player who thrives when cast as a focal point. Plus, add in the volume of chances Chelsea are likely to create with their attacking talent, and this could be a twenty-goal and above season.

– Unlike last season, the club are playing under a manager who they seem to get on with. Obviously, there’s only so far manager-squad harmony can take you, but Roberto Di Matteo seemed capable last season of getting the very most out of what he has available to him. As ever with Chelsea, keeping the more ego-driven members of the first-team happy is of paramount importance – and Di Matteo seems a perfect fit for the role of facilitator.

No

– If you were going to pick apart the strategy employed by Abramovich and Michael Emenalo this Summer, then you would start by looking at its balance – or lack of it. The attacking third of the side looks truly elite, but the remaining parts of the team still very much need attention. Defensive midfield looks flimsy and injury-prone, and the back line seems very thin indeed. Right-back, especially, is a vacuum at Chelsea at the moment, and even if rumours do persist about potential targets, the season opens in under three weeks now – they need to get a move on.

– Petr Cech, in spite of his heroics in Barcelona and Munich, still looks like an Achilles heel. While he’s still capable of making important saves, the error factor in his game seems to incrementally rise season-on-season. Thibaut Courtois has been loaned back to Atletico for another year, and neither Ross Turnbull or Hilario is ever going to be a realistic challenger for Cech’s shirt. An obvious weakness.

– Roberto Di Matteo may have been the perfect antidote to Andre Villas-Boas, but we’re still none the wiser over his ability to lead a side through a 38-game league campaign. Strip back the euphoria of the European Cup, and actually very little changed in the league under Di Matteo last season – they still threw away points at home, and they were easier to beat away from Stamford Bridge than they have been in the last ten years. If Chelsea don’t start well, expect all of Di Matteo’s ‘mateyness’ with Frank Lampard and John Terry to count for very little.

– John Terry may have overcome his CPS trial, but an FA charge still looms large. If, as expected, a ban is handed down for the Anton Ferdinand incident, then Chelsea may well be without their captain – and best defender – for eight games. Ouch.

Reasons for and against…Tottenham being Premier League contenders – July 11th 2012

Andre Villas-Boas was certainly in a bullish mood with the press this afternoon, and there’s a sense of guarded optimism brewing at White Hart Lane with the arrivals of Jan Vertonghen, Gylfi Sigurdsson, and the probable addition of Joao Moutinho.

So, is this actually their year to be a credible threat at the top of the league?

Yes…

– The perennial defensive weakness may well have been cured. Most of the Summer has seemingly been spent wondering whether Jan Vertonghen would resolve his contractual difficulties with Ajax, and now that he has, Tottenham’s defensive third looks very solid indeed. Younes Kaboul’s development over the last eighteen months has been one of the biggest pluses at the club, and the partnership between the two of them could well be something to match Manchester City’s Kompany/Lescott axis. Rumours also persist that French international keeper Hugo Lloris will be joining the club, and that would represent another upgrade. Add in Kyle Walker and Benoit Assou-Ekotto, and that looks on paper to be an extremely strong back five.

– Andre Villas-Boas is a different calibre of manager to Harry Redknapp. While the latter wasn’t quite as tactically inept as has been implied, there were clearly deficiencies with that part of his skill-set. Not so with Villas-Boas; raised under Jose Mourinho, this is a Head Coach with an acute acumen for the game and a heavy appreciation for the fine print. Disregard his time at Chelsea, because his demise was more the result of the resistant egos he faced than his own shortcomings. A modern manager, for a modern Tottenham.

– Undeniably, Spurs have two of the most dangerous natural wingers in the country. In fact, with the added pace from both full-back positions, Tottenham are nearly unplayable when all four of those weapons fire simultaneously. With Gareth Bale’s emergence, it’s easy to overlook what Aaron Lennon offers – he may not be as three-dimensional as Bale in terms of his all-round contribution, but one-on-one with a full-back, he’s still one of the most threatening players in the league. Keep those two fit, and in-form, and Tottenham will always have a chance.

– The Luka Modric saga is finally, mercifully, almost at an end. He’s leaving. But even without him, Spurs are talented and deep in midfield. Scott Parker we all know about, Rafael Van der Vaart has his obvious qualities, but in Sandro, Villas-Boas has a star in the making.

Much to everybody’s chagrin, the Brazilian will be part of the Brazilian team at the Olympics, but on his return expect him to have a break-out season – he has the capability to shut-down anything in an opposition’s midfield, and is a far better all-round footballer than he’s ever given credit for.

Of course, in a couple of weeks time, we may be adding Joao Moutinho to that mixture – and if he can perform at anything like the level he achieved at Euro 2012, nobody will be mourning Modric’s departure for very long.

No…

– Yes, we can disregard what happened to Villas-Boas at Chelsea, but there still isn’t any precedent to him succeeding outside of his native country. As exceptional as the treble-winning season with Porto was in 2010/11, English football is a quantum leap above that level. There are still question marks.

– Tottenham are not convincing up-top. Emmanuel Adebayor will probably commit himself to the club permanently in the coming days, but for all his excellent link-play, he’s just not enough of a goal threat. Manchester City have Sergio Aguero, United have Wayne Rooney, Chelsea have Fernando Torres, and Liverpool have Luis Suarez – last year’s statistics aside, those players can all be reasonably described as ‘elite goalscorers’. Spurs don’t have that. If Villas-Boas was able to add a Robert Lewandowski, or someone of similar pedigree, then maybe this paragraph can be struck off the list, but as it is his side are short in this department.

– It’s fine to dismiss Luka Modric’s departure as not being particularly important, but the Croatian is an extremely good player. Over the last three seasons, he’s been at the heart of just about everything Tottenham have done well – and his passing range is also integral to Gareth Bale’s influence. Theoretically, someone like Joao Moutinho could replace him, but there are no guarantees over that.

– The biggest caveat with Tottenham is always their backbone, or lack thereof. There were signs last season that Harry Redknapp had cured that issue, but then it all went so horribly wrong. From the resilience shown at Anfield, all of sudden Spurs were being turned over at Loftus Road, being beaten at home by Norwich, and being humiliated at the Emirates by Arsenal and at Wembley by Chelsea. In other words, they’re still soft – you can never be a contender without resiliency.

– The other sides have improved. Manchester City have the most talented squad in the league, so that’s already an obstacle, but Manchester United, Chelsea, and Liverpool will all be better next season than they were last – whether Arsenal follow that trend or not can’t really be determined until the Robin Van Persie situation is resolved, but it’s fair to say the top 6 will be more competitive in 2012/13. Last year, Tottenham manager fourth in spite of their capitulation, this time around, a repeat would see them finish in sixth or seventh.

Reasons for and against…Tottenham appointing Andre Villas-Boas – June 19th 2012

For…

– Andre Villas-Boas is very much of the new breed of manager; statistically-orientated, methodical, data-reliant. That’s the future direction of the game, and as such, it would be hugely-beneficial for Spurs to conform to it.

– Regardless of what happened at Chelsea, this is clearly still a very talented manager – you don’t just stumble your way to a domestic treble, even if it is in Portugal. In his year at Porto, he recorded a win percentage of 88.24% across 51 games, and nobody achieves that without knowing how to extract the most from a set of players.

– The situation at Chelsea was a false-reality, and subsequently it’s unfair to judge Villas-Boas on it. By all accounts, the personalities and egos at Stamford Bridge border on being unmanageable, and so tasking someone with a systematic overhaul of that squad was always going to be a thankless task -especially someone so young. Roberto Di Matteo got results out of that side because he deferred to his senior players, which is ultimately why, long-term, he will prove to be an unsuccessful appointment. At Tottenham, Villas-Boas would have a young side, in need of direction rather than overhaul, and that’s situation he’s far better suited to.

– Tenuous as it may be, this is still someone who went to ‘finishing school’ with Jose Mourinho. You don’t work around a personality that vibrant without learning and believing in his methods and his style – how can that be a bad thing? Mourinho 2.0? Maybe not, but in the absence of the real thing it’s a pretty decent alternative.

– The press will create a lot of melodrama about Daniel Levy appointing a manager who has previously be in charge of a rival club – but really it’s largely an irrelevance. As shown with William Gallas and Emmanuel Adebayor, the fans will respond to anything they feel is in the interests of their club’s progress.

Against…

– While the Chelsea debacle shouldn’t stain Villas-Boas’ reputation, it didn’t enhance it either. Rowdy and uncontrollable as his first-team was, there wasn’t an awful lot to suggest that he was capable of adapting to the scrutiny and the cut-and-thrust environment of the Premier League.

– Can he control big personalities? Succeeding with Porto in an inferior league is all well and good, but as successful as he was in his homeland, Villas-Boas hasn’t yet demonstrated the ability to harness ‘star power’, which – although to a lesser extent than at Chelsea – still exists at White Hart Lane.

– Say what you like about Harry Redknapp, but, for the most part, he did get the best out of the vast majority of this Tottenham side. Hence, given the polar opposite approach of Villas-Boas, will that same set of players respond as well?

Reasons for and against…taking the Liverpool job – May 21st 2012

So it seems that being manager at Liverpool isn’t quite as alluring an offer as it once was, with reports that Brendan Rodgers and Frank de Boer having turned down the chance to interview with John Henry.

So – usual format – the pluses and minuses of the job…

For…

Regardless of where they finished last season, this is still Liverpool, and still one of the most storied clubs in football. Kenny Dalglish hasn’t left a squad in disrepair, just one that requires a bit more luck and bit of a tweak in a few crucial positions.

The talent pool at Liverpool is still to be envied. In Luis Suarez, Steven Gerrard, Lucas Leiva, Jose Reina, and Martin Skrtel, the club have a very solid spine, and one that wouldn’t be out of place in the Top 6.

If a new manager wants to generate funds for a rebuild, then several players have a genuine resale value. Admittedly, losses may be incurred, but Andy Carroll, Jordan Henderson, Glen Johnson, Stewart Downing, and Charlie Adam would all interest other clubs if they were deemed surplus to requirements.

Alberto Aquilani is returning. English fans have a false impression of the Italian midfielder, and understandably so, he’s never come close to his best in the Premier League. That being said, he’s been a victim of circumstance in the sense that none of the managers that he’s played under have allowed him the opportunity to flourish in his natural role. As the conduit between Steven Gerrard and Lucas, Aquilani could surely be of value. Or at least more so than Jordan Henderson.

Against…

Liverpool’s decline has been poorly-timed, because it’s coincided with drastic improvements in teams who traditionally been their inferior. Newcastle, Tottenham, and obviously Manchester City have all progressed, and so not only do the Merseysiders have to reel those teams back in, but they’ve lost considerable ground on more traditional rivals like Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal.

John Henry has had his fingers burnt by Kenny Dalglish’s spending. As a result, there has to at least be a question mark over the extent to which he would back a new manager in the transfer market. Yes, as mentioned, there’s value in selling-off parts of the existing squad, but it’s hard to see how that will cover the full-cost of remodelling this squad.

Somewhere along the line, FSG also have to commit some funding to the long-promised new stadium. Whether the fans like or not, a project of that size will always trump squad improvement for importance – hence a situation could exist where some of the bigger names in this team have to be cashed-in.

Anybody thinking of applying for the job will surely have noticed the boom-bust effect Liverpool can have on a career. This is a club, it seems, where you either succeed or fail – there’s no middle-ground. Roy Hodgson will attest that, should things go badly for you, Anfield is not a very enjoyable place to be.

Liverpool as a proposition are in a awkward place. The club’s current standing domestically makes them unappealing to the elite names in European management, yet their reputation and history probably makes them too much of a step-up for developing managers and those still carving out a reputation for themselves.

This is a long-term job, because it could be as much as five years before Liverpool are even close to challenging at the top of the league again. Financial Fair Play will help them to an extent, because it will prevent their more monied rivals from stretching the talent gap that currently exists, but regardless, anyone wanting the manager’s seat at Anfield has to be prepared to commit themselves for the long-haul.

Reasons for and against…Tottenham keeping Emmanuel Adebayor – May 6th 2012

Decision time looms for Tottenham and Emmanuel Adebayor. They’ve been living together for a while, is it time to walk down the aisle?

His loan expires in a week’s time, so Harry Redknapp and Daniel Levy need to reach a consensus on whether they trust the Togolese to lead their line for the foreseeable future.

For…

Adebayor is the definition of a modern forward, and is almost built-to-purpose for the Premier League. Big, strong, physical, good touch, excellent awareness – finding a player that ticks all those boxes is tough, so why allow one that you already have to slip through your fingers.

Buying a replacement would be risky. Luuk De Jong has been mentioned, as have Roberto Soldado and Alvaro Negredo – but all of those players carry a risk, as none of them are proven commodities in English football. Adebayor is an established Premier League performer whose credentials aren’t in any doubt.

All of the players mentioned above would command a bigger fee than would be required to make the Togalese’ move to White Hart Lane permanent. Such is Roberto Mancini’s apparent desire to be rid of Adebayor,and City’s eagerness to get him off the wage bill, that as little as £10m-£12m would probably be enough. Spurs would be looking at least £15m for De Jong, and nearer £20m for the other two.

He’s popular with the other players. Squad harmony is a really underrated commodity in football, and Tottenham have it in abundance. Look at how the other players react to Emmanuel Adebayor; he’s liked by the rest of that squad, and that’s important. That’s not to say that an equally good-fit doesn’t exist, but that, again, finding one would carry a risk. And finding another ‘silly celebration’ partner for Gareth Bale would be harder still…

Against…

The big question mark against Adebayor is his attitude. So far, that hasn’t been a problem – but is that just because he knows he’s serving an apprenticeship of sorts at Tottenham? This is a forward with a lot to prove and a career to get back on track, but would his desire to contribute diminish with the security of a permanent deal?

Wages. Obviously. It’s a concern that the player doesn’t seem willing to negotiate-down on his wage demands, because it suggests that his commitment to being a Tottenham player isn’t enough to for him to settle for less money. Of course, that’s a two-plus-two style theory, but it still represents a red flag – and long-term, it doesn’t look good in front of the fans.