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Predictions: Wigan to derail Newcastle



It would be so refreshing to see Newcastle back in the Champions League, unfortunately it’s difficult to see them acquiring enough points from their remaining fixtures to get there. After their trip to the DW Stadium tomorrow, Chelsea, Manchester City and Everton await – which means that the visit to Lancashire absolutely must yield three points.

That’s a pressure that Alan Pardew’s side aren’t used to. Being an underdog and flying under the radar is one thing, being a frontrunner is quite another, and while this season will in no way be a failure if they fail to finish in the top-four, it may end up feeling like it if they fall short at this point.

Wigan are also a side with the neutrals’ support. Roberto Martinez has somehow heaved his under-talented team out of the relegation places, and whereas survival was once fanciful, it now looks possible. It won’t have gone unnoticed by Martinez that Bolton – with a game in hand – have embarked on a mini-revival, and are now threatening to push the Latics back down into the mire. A win, or a point at least, is essential tomorrow.

History tells is that, during their Premier League tenure, Wigan are at their best when their backs are against the wall – and Newcastle will probably suffer as a result tomorrow. Hugo Rodallega and Albert Crusat will both return for the home side, and that will bolster a forward line that’s started to make a nuisance of themselves.

In a straight comparison, there’s no doubt that Newcastle have a superior talent level, obviously, but Wigan’s success as of late has come from attacking their opponents and playing away from their perennial weakness – their defence. Expect Martinez to stick with the 3-4-3 that did for Manchester United, and look for Victor Moses to get on the ball in threatening wide positions as much as possible. Moses presents a real mismatch for Pardew, because Newcastle’s most obvious frailty is at full-back, and the Nigerian will fancy his chances against either Danny Simpson or Davide Santon.

Newcastle will score, because Antolin Alcaraz and Gary Caldwell will really struggle against Ba(f/g) and Cisse(f/g), and the deep-lying Hatem Ben Arfa, but it’s hard to see the Magpie’s not conceding tomorrow.

1-1 – the result that neither team wants. (21/10 with William Hill)

Wigan – 8/5 Draw – 21/10 Newcastle – 8/5

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Posted in Game Preview, Predictions – Tagged Betting, Newcastle, Prediction, Preview, Wigan
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9 Comments

  1. Kev1664
    April 27, 2012 at 6:11 pm | Permalink

    What are you on about stats proove nothing! He IS statistically the best right back in the league! And statistically number 39 player overall in the league!

    Opinions are just opinions, you can’t base anything on subjective opinion, like it or not Simpson is statistically better than any other right back the league has to offer, and those stats are based on the job he does at right back.

    If subjective opinion was true then NUFC would have been relegated by now, however opinion counts for nothing, stats however do, and like it or not the stats say that NUFC are a better team than clubs such as Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs at the minute, all of who have spent a minimum of £100 million more on assembling the squads they have.

    I disagree with Glen Johnson, can’t defend to save his life! Same with Phil jones, that’s why fergie won’t play him in his preferred defensive role, because he makes too many mistakes. All of the other full backs you probably have a point they are better players, just in worse form than Simpson. However all of those other players play for the ‘Big Clubs’. They all get paid through the roof too. So it is expected that we would change him for any of those. That’s also like saying messi is better than Ben arfa also true, but would NUFC be able to get Messi no!

  2. The Premier League Owl's Gravatar The Premier League Owl
    April 27, 2012 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

    Bacary Sagna, Micah Richards, Kyle Walker, Glen Johnson, Branislav Ivanovic, Pablo Zabaleta, and as and when they play the position, Phil Jones and Chris Smalling are all better in the position.

    Opta stats are fine for measuring a player’s value to his team, but you can’t use them to make overall judgements on a player’s ability – given the choice, Pardew would replace Simpson with any player on the list above.

  3. Kev1664
    April 27, 2012 at 5:34 pm | Permalink

    According to opta stats Danny Simpson is the highest ranking right back in the league. I think only baines, ashley cole and Evra beat him in te stats for a full back.

  4. Toonguy
    April 27, 2012 at 1:51 pm | Permalink

    No antagonism – just stats

  5. matt
    April 27, 2012 at 1:25 pm | Permalink

    congratulations on this article, it is the best laugh I’ve had all week. victor moses will fancy his chances against davide santon haha, he kept christiano ronaldo at bay in the champions league a couple of seasons ago and alex ferguson said he was brilliant but you think he’ll be troubled by a very average player like moses? and newcastle can’t cope with the pressure of playing wigan when they’ve got their backs against the wall? give yourself a pinch. stupid stupid article

  6. The Premier League Owl's Gravatar The Premier League Owl
    April 27, 2012 at 1:12 pm | Permalink

    You lost me when you said that Danny Simpson was the best right-back in the Premier League. Hopefully you’re just trying to be antagonistic.

  7. The Premier League Owl's Gravatar The Premier League Owl
    April 27, 2012 at 1:07 pm | Permalink

    …and Wigan have scored in their last 8 consecutive games, which included Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea.

    Of the seven away fixtures that Newcastle have played in 2012, they’ve conceded in five of them and in total 14 times.

  8. Toonguy
    April 27, 2012 at 1:06 pm | Permalink

    So many things wrong in this article.
    Newcastle getting a ‘must have’ 3 points is a “pressure they’re not used to”?
    6 wins in a row rather disputes that fact.
    “Failing to finish in the top four may end up feeling like failure”?
    We have already qualified for Europe and only the tired old media keep on saying that Newcastle fans are never satisfied and deluded. 99% of all Toon fans will be delighted to go into the Europa League as they never had those kind of aspirations pre-season.
    “Newcastle’s obvious frailty is at full back”?
    Danny Simpson is the best right back in the Premiership if you take into account all recent League stats and Santon is a young Italian defender who was extremely highly rated in his country and is just starting to show why.
    You may be an Owl but you’re not very wise!

  9. Kev1664
    April 27, 2012 at 12:46 pm | Permalink

    How is it hard to see Newcastle not conceeding? They’ve kept 5 clean sheets in the last six games! Also Tim Krul is joint top of the clean sheet league with Joe Hart on 14 clean sheets a peice!

    While you say Newcastles weakness is at full back, may I remind you that from the oota stats Danny Simpson in the number one rated right back in the league.

    Also Hatem Ben Arfa does not play in a deep lying position, he plays wide right of a front three. Ba also is not playing centrally at the minute but is out on the left of a front three (occasionally swapping with cisse I the centre).

    Do some research eh!

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